When would be the end of lockdown?

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Though you may notice a small improvement on the number of positive cases, the result is not yet the same in all the regions.

To end the lockdown, we need to have cases that are almost nil or control those places completely according to the zones.

Global corona case as of third may
Stats as of May 3rd
corona cases count India
Corona count India

Image Source

If the lockdown ends now or in May, we could end up spending additional government revenue in controlling the pandemic and cause further lockdown.

A three-week lockdown has essential to push out the epidemic curve to June 2020, while personally focusing on state-level shutdowns rather than a national shutdown.

Dr Laxminarayan

Rather than considering about end of lockdown any sooner, it’s important to notice that:

  • The projections on April 13th indicated positive count of around 100,000 by April 24th, this is about 5 times higher then the reported case. Infections could have been about eight time as much without the lockdown.
  • Without a lockdown, the number of COVID-19 infections was projected to double in every three days, but with the logic of shutdown, we were able to reduce that doubling time from three to eight days.
  • The purpose of lockdown was to buy time, since March 24th the rate of testing has increased from under 2000 a day to over 36000 at the current time.

The coronavirus pandemic has been a big story, it has made it’s own stance in such a way that all other stories have collapsed into it. Though there is too much news, also there is no news! Though there could be few possibilities that few COVID infected countries would let some areas release the lockdown, it’s not necessary that all the countries can.

An article from wired.co.uk explained it well on how everyone needs to stop asking when the lockdown will end, it portrays, few countries like Germany, New Zealand, Czech and Italy, is tentatively leaving lockdown. Though the methods for lifting the lockdown varies, the basic need to fight the virus is still consistent.

These countries have been performing widespread testing, massive contact tracing system and very low rates of hospital admissions.

So to lift the lockdown, it’s necessary that we curb the graph and have our system prepared for massive testing and with active contact tracing followed by low rates of hospital admissions.

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